A lot of the estimates surrounding homelessness and rough sleeping are just that - estimates. There are many reasons it is difficult to ascertain true statistics, but it also doesn't even seem like a remotely possible proposition when the best guesses are as high as they are. 

Government statistics say that England experienced record numbers of rough sleepers last year at 4793, around 100 more than in 2024 and 1700 higher than in 2024. But charities like Crisis consider this to be a vast understatement. Crisis research last year estimated the number to be three times higher than that. 

So take those figures with a pinch of salt, but also consider how bad the figures could be if they were to rise - either the official figures or best guesses - by a quarter. 

Well, a new report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) North and Crisis says just that. Despite September 2025 seeing the highest number of households living in temporary accommodation ever recorded, and an additional 80,000 households requiring support to prevent or relieve homelessness, the think tank and the charity warn that at current pace, homelessness could rise by another 25 per cent by the end of the decade.

While First People and many other charities have consistently argued that homelessness can be, and has been treated as an unavoidable feature of modern life at times, the new report - Home Truths: Housing-led approaches to homelessness - argues for substantial and fundamental reform, thereby removing the equal-parts timeless and baseless critique that advocates love to moan about homelessness but never offer solutions. 

IPPR argues that despite the introduction of a homelessness strategy and large increases in spending over the last decade, “nationally, there is a lack of political urgency in reducing homelessness”. 

The report states: “The government’s interventions on homelessness to date reflect a continuity approach to managing the problem, rather than a step change in tackling its root causes or taking a different approach. The strategy calls for cross-government working, but is lacking the long-term vision for truly ending homelessness, and buy-in from across government.”

In its pursuit of solutions, the think tank also says the lack of a standardised, agreed-upon definition of what a “housing-led” approach looks like leaves it open to different interpretations, and offered a recommendation to government of one that is suitable:

"A housing-led approach moves people into their own settled homes as quickly as possible, with support in place as appropriate" 

Drawing on case studies from Greater Manchester Combined Authority and “a mayor who has made homelessness a priority”, North East Mayoral Strategic Authority and Oxfordshire County Council, IPPR identified what it believes to be hurdles to the implementation of housing-led approaches: a lack of social housing supply; legislative and bureaucratic barriers; siloed thinking; lack of political will; risk aversion and inadequate funding.

For IPPR, inadequate availability of social housing presents the “most deep-rooted challenge to housing-led provision”.

The traditional “staircase approach”

Now without simply regurgitating the entire report, IPPR North argues that things could, and should be done differently. The traditional “staircase approach” to homelessness - where people are expected to progress through a series of stages from emergency shelters and hostels to temporary accommodation, before being considered “ready” for a permanent home - is unequivocally challenged by the researchers. They add that this approach can be particularly detrimental to those with complex needs.

The housing-led approach, as championed by the new PM from up north, is based on the belief that housing is a right, not something that must be earned through compliance.

This was referenced in the First People blog exploring what could be expected under Andy Burnham’s leadership, and according to the Guardian, the new PM was supposed to write the foreword for this report before plans were changed in pursuit of the Makerfield seat. 

Data shows that homelessness and rough sleeping improved in Manchester under his leadership, and even though it wasn't eradicated as he aimed for, it is undeniably promising to see that he in-fact wanted to be involved in the publishing of this report. The sceptic in me still thinks he could have found some time to get a speechwriter to jot down some ideas for him to give the green-light on, but it is also worth considering the context: he has promised the “biggest council housebuilding programme since the postwar period”.

While he gets a shoutout for his work in Greater Manchester, IPPR also consistently argues that clear local innovation alone will not be enough. IPPR calls on the government to match rhetoric with action - something First People has banged on a lot of drums about. Its recommendations include increasing social housing supply, bringing empty homes back into use, creating stronger duties for housing providers and establishing a dedicated delivery unit to coordinate efforts across government.

Regardless of the recommendations of the report, and the involvement of the Makerfield man, the main takeaway should be the warning. A 25% increase in homelessness would be devastating for the country and the economy whatever way you slice it. It would also be demoralising for advocates and charities, and more than anything it will lead to truly dire consequences. The government shake-up will bring new ministers and ideas, but success in this regard relies on familiarity. And for that reason, expectations of Burnham should be high.